Saudi Arabia is mediating between the US and Iran to preserve the ceasefire and the Lebanon-Israel truce. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 22 sits at 5.5% YES.
Market reaction
Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah’s talks with Secretary Rubio have moved odds on the US-Iran ceasefire market, with continuation beyond April 22 at 46.5% YES. Traders are pricing in a modest probability of diplomatic extension.
The term structure shows a bigger jump between April 30 and May 31, with the May 31 market…
